February, 2007

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Protect Your Downside with Farecast.com

Sunday, February 11th, 2007

Farecast is a great service — here’s why:

  1. Clever use of free data (costs a ton to process this much data, but the data itself is free)
  2. Deliver the right information (will fare’s increase or decrease) at the right time (at the point of search or transaction)
  3. Leverages consumers fear of overpaying. 

However, will your average consumer spend enough time to grok how this works — not sure about that one.  Some good marketing folks will be needed on this one. 

Two Winning Issues for Barack Obama or Hillary Clinton

Sunday, February 11th, 2007

While there has been lots of talk in the media regarding both Barack Obama’s recent formal announcement and Hillary’s latest (As a former Chicagoan it is great to see two serious presidential candidates with strong Chicago roots).  However, the mainstream media (and they are all – CNN, NYTimes, Fox, ABC, etc. equally culpable) focus more on character and controversy then the actual policies that will impact our country and the globe over the next 6 years.  Here are two serious issues that both Barack and Hillary should begin offering serious proposals for:

Energy Policy

How will we go beyond simply taking about the need for renewable energies and clean technologies to actually constructing meaningful policy that will incent business and consumers.  Here are a few suggestionsImmediately remove

  • Rep. John Dingell as Chairman of the Energy and Commerce committee as he is single-handedly obstructing the long overdue increase in gas-mileage for cars.  Why does a Chevy Impala only get 21MPG – that is a rather sad statement on American manufacturing technology and government institutions inability to effectively regulate.
  • Incentivize (tax breaks, etc.) employers to provide fuel efficient transportation for their employees such as:
  • Free daily bus shuttles with free Wi-Fi Internet access – both Yahoo! and Google provide this service for their employees.
  • $5,000K towards the purchase of a hybrid car that gets at least 45 mpg.
  • Create a DARPA like program for Renewable Energies and Clean Technologies.  For example, the DARPA Grand Challenge was an amazing and successful event — can’t we compete to develop base technologies that will improve vehicle gas mileage by a factor of 10.  Let Toyota, Ford, and others focus on the 20-30% annual increases… while our major university institutions focus on the breakthrough technologies that will be a 10x force — I want my children’s car to be one that gets 500 mpg.
  • Provide greater incentives for developers and consumers to build and buy housing within major metro areas.  If you only live 5 miles from your office and your city provides convenient and affordable mass transit there is little reason to drive to work.

Uncontrolled Spending & Looming Unfunded Mandatory Benefits (e.g. Social Security)

While many will not agree with President’s Bush decision or handling of the war his attempt to do something about the huge increases in our mandatory spending is a good thing — you many not agree with the how, but at the very least such as significant issue deserves a more thoughtful debate.  Germany, France, and others are good examples of what happens when you let the problem linger too long.  Here is chart (courtesy of IBM’s Many Eyes project) from the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) that provides a good illustration of the components of the Federal budget — here you can clearly see that items such as Social Security, Medicare, Interest on debt, etc. dominant our federal budget:While many will not agree with President’s Bush decision or handling of the war his decision his attempt about the huge increases in our mandatory spending is a good thing.  Germany, France, and others are good examples of what happens when you let the problem linger too long.  Here is chart from the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) that provides a good illustration of the components of the Federal budget — here you can clearly see that items such as Social Security, Medicare, Interest on debt, etc. dominant our federal budget:

(courtesy of  IBM’s Many Eyes project)

Why should you care?

All this mandatory spending leaves little room for investment in education, technology, and social services (all discretionary spending) that will impact the quality of life for future generations.

A Quick Comparison of Google and Indeed.com Trends

Saturday, February 3rd, 2007

Steve Rubel has a good post on the use of basic (yet powerful) analytic tools such as Google Trends and Indeed to develop insight into whether or not certain technologies are hype or here to stay.  While there is no doubt that these tools are powerful I have some concerns with the use of the Indeed data for a few reasons:

  • Unlike Google Trends or Flickr Camera Finder which rely on data that is directly provided by users on their respective sites the data on which Indeed trends is based on is based on their crawled data and therefore very suspect (full disclosure I did work in the Yahoo!’s HotJobs group).  Lets go one level deeper and look at the Indeed corpus and why it is not suitable for analytics and trending:
    • Hiring managers and recruiters flood their job descriptions with buzzwords in order to rank higher on Careerbuilder, Monster, HotJobs, etc. hence generating hiring trends based on the occurrence of certain keywords in a job description won’t tell you that much and for certain keywords will likely lead you in the wrong direction.
    • Aggregating job listings via a crawl (which is what Indeed does) is not easy and it yields tens of duplicates per job (every recruiter posts their jobs to multiple sites).

By the way Indeed is a pretty good job search engine, this trends feature is a bit out of place.  It would be far more interesting if they provided trends on what their users were searching for.