Lots of new mobile data coming out over the past few days. Since we are operating in an emerging category one has to make certain assumptions about how the mobile market will unfold. Each new data point can validate or debunk ones assumptions.
- Mobile coupon redemption will hit $6B by 2014 according to Juniper Research [source]. Unless there is a new compelling scenario (e.g. eBay scenario helped create PayPal) this will be a very slow road.
- Mobile will grab 11.7% of all digital ad spend by 2014 [source]. Mobile ad monetization is actually an area where lots of product innovation needs to happen.
Carriers and Connections
- Mobile carrier wireless data revenues grew 27% y/y in Q3 2009 hitting $11.3B. While AT&T (with exclusive iPhone) is growing their data revenues fastest 6% q/q, but Verizon and Sprint are not far behind 5% q/q.[source]
- T-Mobile (33M customers) even with some nice G1 Android phones lost 77,000 customers for the first time in history [source].
- WiFi Hotspots hit 1.2B connections growing 47% in 2009 [source]. This is obviously good but big opportunity to provide centralized authentication and billing. Its crazy that you need to create an account and enter credit card for each WiFi Hotspot provider.
- In 2010 over 1B mobile devices will connect to the Internet vs. 1.3B PCs that are connected to the Internet. Mobile devices growing 2.5x faster then PCs so it won’t be long before more mobile devices are connected to the Internet then PCs. Happening incredibly fast. [source]
- 200M “Smartphones” (iPhone, Android, etc.) will ship in 2010 [source]. One smartphone generates as much data usage as thirty feature phones so this is analogous to shipping 600M feature phones [source] In my opinion this divergence will increase dramatically as the content (apps and web services) improve over the coming years.