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Global Mobile Average Revenue per Subscriber: Voice vs. Data Breakdown

Monday, October 5th, 2009

There are two critical ingredients to engagement in mobile web services. First, a decent mobile web browser or native mobile applications (iPhone Apps being the best example, but there are others).  Second is a data plan. Users willing to shell out $10 to $20 a month (adjusted for purchasing power) on a data plan. To illustrate this point more clearly and with numbers; EU (western) had 12 million more smartphones (phones with decent to great mobile web browsers).  Yet, the US has considerably more (5M) users actually using mobile web services (email, browser, native apps). Well, in the U.S  32M users (14% of all subscribers) have a data plan versus only 10M (4.5% of all subscribers) in Europe (western) — a difference of 22 million users *.  If you have a smartphone with no data plan you have a fashion accessory.

The chart breaks down average revenue per subscriber (monthly for the year 2008) between voice and data for some top countries.  Note: Philippines & Indonesia users already spend 33% or more of their monthly bill on data services.

*MMetrics  June 2009

Mobile Handset Data

Sunday, October 4th, 2009

These past two weeks I spent considerable amount of time delving deep into the mobile data, some absolutely fascinating stuff.  Finding good data is still way too time consuming and the tools to analyze it (namely Excel) are still too primitive.  As I discover more mobile handset data that could be useful to others that need this data hopefully you will find this useful.

  • Looking back at 2008 [source]
    • feature phone sales fell 10% y/y
    • smartphone sales grew 35% y/y [Nokia was down y/y and Apple, RIM, and Samsung all grew share]
    • smartphone penetration: 13.5% of all new handsets sold.
  • Looking forward
    • By 2013 smartphone penetration will reach 38% [source]
    • Smartphone sales to surpass global PC sales by end of 2011 [source]
    • Mobile touch handsets to increase to 230M+ by 2012 [source]

2008 Mobile Handset Sales (Replacement and New Subscribers):

Nike+ iPod: Starting the Self-Instrumentation Age

Sunday, December 16th, 2007

At Work we instrument our products/services to ensure that we can track important metrics — as Peter Drucker said “If you can’t measure it, you can’t manage it.”  Yet, for metrics that impact our quality of life @Home we have yet to develop products that help people efficiently manage some of the more important aspect of their lives:

  1. Health
    • How much exercise do you get per week?
    • How much crappy food do you eat per week?
  2. Energy Consumption
    • How much money are are you spending on energy and do you know the cost of your energy choices?
    • How much damage (carbon emissions) are you doing to the earth?
  3. TV consumption:-)
    • How much time are you wasting?

Because we all just have one shot at life, these are actually are a lot more important then the @work metrics.  Measurement and analytic products in the business domain are well-established and long-ago crossed the chasm.  However, on the consumer side while there are niche products such as Polar watches there are no self-measurement products (needs a catchier name, but for now this highly descriptive will work) that have successfully crossed the chasm.

Nike+ iPod is poised to cross the chasm and is starting to uncover the opportunities of a self-measurement age. There are a couple of things that they nailed in this first version that will enable them to cross the chasm:

  1. Plugs-Into Existing Products
    • We don’t need to create new products from the ground up to measure these everyday activities we simply need to plugin sensors and displays into existing products. Contrast this to a product like Polar that is attempting to build niche products from the ground up that help athletes measure their performance.
  2. Low-Cost
    • Once you’ve spent $400+ on an iPod and Nike sneakers buying an Nike+ iPod Kit for $29 is not going to break your bank.
    • This point is driven by #1 above.
  3. Simple Setup
    • Just put the sensor below the insole of your sneaker and a small receiver snaps into your iPod — that’s it your done. See here.
  4. ‘Thermometer’ Interface
    • Explains to the user how they are progressing or regressing with their runs.
    • Lightweight analytics that allows you to slice/dice your runs — for those of you familiar with Business Objects or Siebel Analytics there are hints of those types of experience here.   Below are my runs for the past few months as seen on nikeplus.com

What still needs some work:

  • Positive Peer Pressure
    • Enable users to encourage and compete with each other. This is incredibly imporant because it keeps people engaged and provides a viral way to introduce potential customers to the product.
    • They don’t need to create a new social-network to develop this community and positive peer pressure. Rather tap into an existing social network at the point of registration (more on this for another post).

Beyond the value that this creates for users, it also builds lock-in for Nike and Apple — when I get ready to buy a new set of sneakers in a few months guess what I will be buying.

When does real work get done anymore?

Sunday, August 19th, 2007

Bloggers Warning: by the end of this post you may be compelled to implant a device in yourself.

We live in a world of information overload and sometimes I wonder when do people actually do work (like write specs, write code, create designs, model revenue opportunities, etc.). Some of the major timesinks during the week:

information streams

*see techmeme, greader, facebook, MyY!, etc. people spend a lot more time then they willingly admit on this stuff — i estimate anywhere between 2-3 hrs./day (how ironic i don’t have the time to actually back into this number)

meetings

*depending on what you can do this easily 50% of your time at work (some work gets done here, but lets not overdue it)

water cooler chat

*shooting the shit with friends/colleagues at work

daily transportation

*1 to 2 hrs./day

social nourishment

*time with friends, family, etc.

eating

*at least 1 hr a day

sleeping

*5-7 hrs. a night

excercising or whatever it is you do to relax

*0-5 hrs./week

writing blog posts like this:-)

So — what is the solution? Simple –> self-instrumentation. Basically, if we had data that showed us how we spent our time over the course of a day, week, month I assure you we would quickly realize how much of our time is wasteful and would change our behaviors accordingly. The saying “you can’t fix what you don’t measure” is so very true and why not apply it to our most precious resource — time.

Oil & Cars Lead the Way

Monday, July 16th, 2007

10 of top 12 global companies (by revenue) all either

a) make cars/trucks/etc.

b) feed them (i.e. oil)

This list is basically all you need to get excited about the economic opportunity for alternative energy/clean-tech.

Crazy prediction of the day:

In 25 years 5 of these companies will be replaced by new alternative energy companies.

  1. Walmart $351B
  2. Exxon $347B
  3. Shell $318B
  4. BP $274B
  5. GM $207B
  6. Toyota $207B
  7. Chevron $200B
  8. DaimlerChrysler $190B
  9. ConocoPhillips $172B
  10. Total $168B
  11. GE $168B
  12. Ford $160B

See full list here

“Oracle of Omaha” — A Must Read

Saturday, June 30th, 2007

In a world of information overload there are few must reads, but if you appreciate what Warren Buffett has done then here is some really good stuff by Jeff Matthews

Jeff has a series of posts entitled “Pilgrimage to Omaha.” I only read two posts in a series of 10 (plus 2 extras for intro and conclusion) and I am super excited to read the rest (that rarely happens)— here is but one of the many laconic and insightful points Jeff makes:

“Thus it is that whether he’s talking about food companies or airlines or newspapers or oil companies, Buffet has clearly made it his business to identify the single most important variable for each business—and knowing those crucial variables, he can determine whether the values offered in the stock market at any given time are attractive, or not. Without using a spreadsheet.”