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Why Barring AdMob (aka Google) from the iOS is a Smart Move

Thursday, June 10th, 2010

Two platforms are emerging the mobile operating system platform and nested within it is the mobile app and ad platform.  For over a decade Google played for keeps in its platform (search connects searchers and advertisers), so why shouldn’t Apple do the same? By barring AdMob from the iOS they:

  1. Limits Google’s Ability to Achieve Mobile Ad Dominance: The mobile ad business is a two-sided network. Apple is ripping away one side of that marketplace (or at least a very large chunk of it — 100M eyeballs).  This will limit AdMob’s (i.e. Google) ability to achieve critical mass in the mobile ad space during these formative growth years.
  2. iAd Accelerator: With AdMob out of the picture advertisers will move their mobile ad budgets to other ad networks and clearly  the iAd network will grab some of these dollars accelerating its growth as it attempts to reach critical mass.  Remember, in any market with strong network effects the strong get stronger and the weak get weaker.  Apple is positioning iAd to get stronger.
  3. Keeps Ad Innovation Alive (some): A key hallmark of an open system is the increased rate of innovation. By opening iPhone to select mobile ad networks the iOS platform will still benefit from the ad innovation these providers generate.
  4. Switching Costs for Developers are Still Low: In a mature market developers could incur significant switching costs i.e. if AdMob had 10x better ad relevancy algorithms combined with an advertiser base 20x the combined competition it would be challenging for the others players to match the revenues developers were generating.  But in such a nascent marketplace nobody has these kinds of advantages.
    • Other mobile ad networks (Apple iAd, Millennial, Greystripe, and Mojiva) will quickly pick up the slack and provide comparable monetization rates.
    • The cost of switching to another ad mobile provider is not significant – a new billing relationship, a couple of lines of code, and new analytic tools to monitor your performance.
    • The vast majority of mobile developers making real money (now) are not doing so with AdMob display ads — they are doing it with paid apps.

Finally, do you really believe that app developers would give up access to 100M mobile users who have a credit card on file.

Mobile Data: Ads, Carriers, and Devices

Thursday, December 3rd, 2009

Lots of new mobile data coming out over the past few days.  Since we are operating in an emerging category one has to make certain assumptions about how the mobile market will unfold.  Each new data point can validate or debunk ones assumptions.

Mobile Advertising

  • Mobile coupon redemption will hit $6B by 2014 according to Juniper Research [source].  Unless there is a new compelling scenario (e.g. eBay scenario helped create PayPal) this will be a very slow road.
  • Mobile will grab 11.7% of all digital ad spend by 2014 [source].  Mobile ad monetization is actually an area where lots of product innovation needs to happen.

Carriers and Connections

  • Mobile carrier wireless data revenues grew 27% y/y in Q3 2009 hitting $11.3B. While AT&T (with exclusive iPhone) is growing their data revenues fastest 6% q/q, but Verizon and Sprint are not far behind 5% q/q.[source]
  • T-Mobile (33M customers) even with some nice G1 Android phones lost 77,000 customers for the first time in history [source].
  • WiFi Hotspots hit 1.2B connections growing 47% in 2009 [source].  This is obviously good but big opportunity to provide centralized authentication and billing.  Its crazy that you need to create an account and enter credit card for each WiFi Hotspot provider.

Mobile Devices

  • In 2010 over 1B mobile devices will connect to the Internet vs. 1.3B PCs that are connected to the Internet. Mobile devices growing 2.5x faster then PCs so it won’t be long before more mobile devices are connected to the Internet then PCs. Happening incredibly fast.  [source]
  • 200M “Smartphones” (iPhone, Android, etc.) will ship in 2010 [source].  One smartphone generates as much data usage as thirty feature phones so this is analogous to shipping 600M feature phones [source] In my opinion this divergence will increase dramatically as the content (apps and web services) improve over the coming years.